All votes are equal. But some voters are more equal than others.

Author:
Electoral Reform Society,

Posted on the 1st February 2015

Should 10,000 voters be able to decide who runs Britain?

 New analysis of Labour’s target seats for the 2015 General Election have shown just how few people are required to change the Government of this country.

Just 10,000 voters changing their mind next polling day could propel Labour to the largest party. 70,000 would provide a 1 seat majority – 150,000 voters would give Labour a thumping 60 seat majority.

Why should any of this matter?

Our politics remains in thrall to the priorities and interests of a handful of people. These Golden Voters are the ones that count.  Focus Groups will distil their fears, aspirations and desires, which will in turn inform the presentation – and the substance – of policy initiatives and manifestos.

 

“Will it play well in Thurrock?” will be the conversation now being had at Labour high command, as the party sets about developing policy for the 2015.

 

It’s Not quite the ‘One Nation‘ of Labour rhetoric, but then our elections militate against equality.

 

This isn’t a criticism of any one party. They’re all playing the only game in town. Any sensible party strategist, facing limited resources and with an eye on power, will put a relentless focus on the few votes that matter. It’s the inescapable logic of politics under First Past the Post.

 

The country faces hard choices. It’s a shame the interests of Britain will continue to play second fiddle to the interests of a handful of voters in a handful of marginals.

 

 

The Seats that Matter

SeatParty ControlVotes required to switch seatPolitical Impact
North WarwickshireCon

28

ThurrockCon

47

HendonCon

54

Cardiff NorthCon

97

SherwoodCon

108

Norwich SouthLD

156

Stockton SouthCon

167

BroxtoweCon

195

Lancaster and FleetwoodCon

167

Bradford EastLD

183

Amber ValleyCon

269

WaveneyCon

385

Wolverhampton SWCon

346

Marcambe and LunesdaleCon

434

CarlisleCon

427

StroudCon

650

Weaver ValeCon

496

LincolnCon

530

Brighton PavilionGreen

627

Plymouth Sutton and DevonportCon

575

DewsburyCon

764

Warrington SouthCon

777

Brent CentralLD

673

BedfordCon

677

Brighton KemptownCon

664

PudseyCon

830

Labour Largest Party
Brentford and IsleworthCon

980

HoveCon

935

Enfield NorthCon

847

Hastings and RyeCon

997

Manchester WithingtonLD

948

BurnleyCon

910

IpswichCon

1040

Dundee EastSNP

911

East DunbartonshireLD

1093

Halesowen and Rowley RegisCon

1012

NuneatonCon

1035

GloucesterCon

1211

Northampton NorthCon

969

Bury NorthCon

1122

KingswoodCon

1223

ErewashCon

1251

Blackpool North and CleveleysCon

1076

City of ChesterCon

1292

ArfonPC

728

Croydon CentralCon

1440

WorcesterCon

1491

KeighleyCon

1471

Wirral WestCon

1219

Cannock ChaseCon

1598

LoughboroughCon

1873

Harrow EastCon

1702

Warwick and LeamingtonCon

1757

Birmingham YardleyLD

1502

South SwindonCon

1773

Ealing Central and ActonCon

1859

PendleCon

1793

StevenageCon

1790

Elmet and RothwellCon

2261

Edinburgh WestLD

1902

WatfordCon

2271

Carmathen West and South PembrokeshireCon

1712

Vale of GlamorganCon

2154

Argyll and ButeLD

2010

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCon

2098

Carmathen East and DinefwrPC

1741

Norwich NorthCon

1951

High PeakCon

2339

Labour MAJORITY
Milton Keynes SouthCon

2601

Rossendale and DarwenCon

2247

CleethorpesCon

2150

North East SomersetCon

2458

Great YarmouthCon

2139

Dudley SouthCon

1928

DoverCon

2638

Colne ValleyCon

2926

South RibbleCon

2778

PeterboroughCon

2431

StaffordCon

2731

StourbridgeCon

2582

HarlowCon

2463

AberconwyCon

1700

Ilford NorthCon

2703

Preseli PembrokeshireCon

2303

Brigg and GooleCon

2574

Crewe and NandwichCon

3024

Bristol NWCon

3029

BatterseaCon

2989

Finchley and Golders GreenCon

2905

Calder ValleyCon

3216

RedcarLD

2608

CrawleyCon

2965

Hornsey and Wood GreenLD

3438

Reading WestCon

3003

RugbyCon

3001

BurtonCon

3153

Cardiff CentralLD

2289

Labour majority of 60
South Basildon and East ThurrockCon

2887

TamworthCon

3046

RedditchCon

2911

Chatham and AylesfordCon

3035

North SwindonCon

3531

CambridgeLD

3724

Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLD

4263

Bristol WestLD

5684

Leeds NWLD

5761

 

 

 

 

Cumulative vote changeOutcome
10,326Labour Largest Party
69,274Labour Majority of 1
148,585Labour Majority of 60

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