We all have a party we lean toward. Maybe we’ve stuck with them for decades, maybe our loyalties shift with the times. But when it comes to how we elect our parliament, our choices shouldn’t be driven by who benefits today. Electoral systems last longer than governments.
The funhouse mirror of First Past the Post
First Past the Post is like one of those old funhouse mirrors that distort what we see. It stretches some parties to giant size while shrinking others to a sliver. And just like those mirrors, the image changes when public opinion moves even slightly.
In 2015, the Conservatives walked away with a majority on 37% of the vote. At the last election, Labour gained a landslide on 33.7%, a smaller share of the vote than the Tories had in 2015, and significantly more seats. It’s not just the biggest party that gets a boost, many of the UK’s nationalist parties have had elections where they win more seats than they deserve, and others where they lose out. The public shifts, and the mirror makes a new distortion.
Winners today, losers tomorrow
The truth is, both Labour and the Conservatives have taken turns being the beneficiary. But, the same rules that once magnified one side have later cut it down. When political support changes, so does the distortion.
And that support is changing again. Recent polling suggests Reform UK could end up as the next big beneficiary of First Past the Post, thanks to the way their support clusters in certain areas. What looks like an unfair system when you’re losing can suddenly seem convenient when you’re winning. But you shouldn’t make decisions based purely on short-term convenience.
Predictability matters
Nobody can predict the next election. You can’t know which party will be squeezed, or which will suddenly balloon. A small shift in the vote can be the difference between narrowly winning everywhere, and coming close second in every seat.
But you can choose a system that behaves predictably – one that translates votes into seats in a consistent, transparent way. A system where your ballot counts the same no matter who you vote for or where you live. This is what we mean when we call for proportional representation.
Rather than constantly trying to find the sweet spot of support within a demographic that will see them catapulted into power with the least support – politicians would have to try and win all our votes.
That predictability is what makes a democracy trustworthy. If we build the rules to suit our favourites today, we’ll regret it when the reflection shifts tomorrow.
Seeing clearly again
Politics shouldn’t be a world of illusions. It should be a clear reflection through which we can see the choices we’ve made. Reform, Labour, Conservative – none of them will always be on top. But the principle that every vote should matter equally can outlast them all.
So before we rush to defend a system because it flatters our side, let’s step back from the funhouse mirror. The shapes we see now won’t stay that way for long.
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