There was a notable shift in mood at the Conservative conference this year compared to recent ones. Until last year, the party had been in government and its conferences focused on the leaders’ speeches, while last year was dominated by the leadership race following the general election. This year’s conference in Manchester had a different pace, as the party settled into opposition and started to look more closely at the policy work it wants to do ahead of the next election.
The Conservatives’ slump in the polls to third place behind Labour and Reform informed much of the debate, which often centred on the performance of leader Kemi Badenoch. There was also much discussion about the possible path back to power for the party, whether they would enter an electoral pact or coalition with Reform, and which policy areas it needs to engage with to become electable. This frequently turned to the state of the electoral system, which on current polling would likely operate in a disadvantageous way for the Conservatives.
Tories warned they’re likely to get fewer seats than Lib Dems under FPTP – even with more votes
The ERS was in Manchester to engage in debate around electoral reform with MPs and media figures, as well as to support colleagues in Conservative Action for Electoral Reform (CAER), who were making the case for the Tory party to support a proportional system for Westminster.
One fringe in particular highlighted how difficult an obstacle First Past the Post is becoming for Conservatives seeking an electoral comeback at the next election. This was the event held by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. The eminent political scientist gave a detailed presentation to a packed room on how the party was faring in the current polls, indicating that a large chunk of its core vote had split off to other parties, predominantly Reform. He warned that this meant the party would likely be penalised at the next election and could end up with fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats, whose vote is more efficiently distributed – even if the Tories win more votes overall.
FPTP is becoming an increasing blockage to the party’s path back to power
Colleagues from CAER were quick to point out to other party members that there is now a compelling case for the Conservatives to back PR for Westminster, as they are becoming one of the parties not getting a fair share of MPs for the votes they win.
The case was further underscored at another fringe event held by polling firm More in Common, which broke down how steep the ascent back to power now is for the party given the split on the right of British politics with Reform. Luke Tryl, the polling company’s director, pointed out that the party must win back voters who have left for both Reform and the Liberal Democrats, making its position even harder under a winner-takes-all voting system such as FPTP.
This year’s Conservative conference marked a clear turning point for the party. Whether the party embraces this shift or continues to rely on a system that once favoured it, but now hinders its prospects, may prove decisive in shaping its future relevance in British politics.
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