Looking back on the last 20 months of UK political polls

This month’s polling breakdown is being written shortly after Andy Burnham’s big speech to Labour’s annual conference. One of the cornerstones of which was his announcement of a National Commission on Electoral Reform and the historic pledge that Labour would “contest the next election with a manifesto commitment to change the electoral system, so that everyone’s vote counts and everyone’s voice is heard”.

This month’s analysis comes too early to pick up any polling movements that may flow from Burnham’s speech. However, it is still an interesting moment to take stock and reflect on a polling picture that looks very different compared with the beginning of 2026.

Here are the polling figures for September.

September UK General Election Polling Averages

The average (mean) vote shares from the most recent September poll by each of the ten polling companies who published a UK general election poll conducted during September, is as follows:

* Compared with August’s average – each month a different combination of pollsters will publish polls, so this change is not strictly comparing like with like but gives a general sense of change.

September’s polling average was compiled using data from the following pollsters – BMG; Deltapoll; Find Out Now; Freshwater Strategy; Ipsos; More In Common; Opinium; Survation; Trajectory Partnership; YouGov.

What do these results mean?

In July 2026, the month Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, Labour regained the lead in our monthly polling average for the first time since March 2025. In August, Labour doubled their lead over Reform UK to around two percentage points. Now, in September, they have doubled it again, to around four points. And, at 27.2%, Labour has hit a new high since we started collecting this monthly polling data, in February 2025.

At the same time, Reform UK have fallen to their lowest vote share over this period (23.4%), with the previous low being 24.0%, in March 2025.

This reversal of fortunes is reflected in the graph below, which tracks the progress of the parties across the twenty months that we have been compiling these polling averages.

Last month we posed the question of how easy it would be for Burnham to resist the temptation of calling a general election, if the early signs of his potential for coalescing the ‘left’ bloc of voters blossomed into something more substantial, while the ‘right’ bloc continued to be relatively evenly divided, a fatal flaw under First Past the Post (FPTP).

For now, Burnham has squashed election speculation but it is worth keeping an eye on whether the chatter returns, if Labour’s poll lead continues to climb towards the 10-point lead they secured at the 2024 general election.

For an indepth look at why this matters, you can find an extended version of this article on our Substack.

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