New research published last month by Dr Tom Barton at Kings College London shows the potential detrimental effect of new voter ID laws on turnout. The research shows that the Voter ID requirement deterred and effectively disenfranchised an estimated 10,571 potential voters, who otherwise would have voted in the 2018 Bromley local elections, where voter ID was trialled. Up until this research we have only had Electoral Commission data on the number of people turned away for not bringing ID or bringing incorrect ID to the GE polls (16,000) and post-election polling suggesting that 4% of people did not vote due to voter ID requirements.
Voters stay at home, so don’t appear on official tallies
For this new research Barton analysed historical turnout trends at local elections in Bromley and Greater London as a whole, to produce an estimate of the likely turnout in Bromley at the 2018 local elections if the voter ID trial had not taken place. He estimates that of the 240,249 people who were registered to vote in local election in Bromley, on the south-west outskirts of Greater London, in 2018, 4.4% of these potential voters did not vote due to the Voter ID requirement but otherwise would have done, approximately 460 per ward. The number of voters who were recorded turned away at the polls due to lack of ID in Bromley in 2018 was 154. Barton states the “large difference between the two figures implies that voter ID laws reduce turnout by deterring people who lack ID rather than catching the unaware.” There may be other contributing factors which deter a voter, however Bartons research has shown that voter ID certainly contributes to a decreased turnout.
The number of voters per ward this affects is likely to change depending on socio-demographic factors of the ward, therefore there will be an unequal distribution of potential voters deterred from voting across wards. Due to this, Barton highlights that it is possible for the number of potential voters deterred from voting due to the Voter ID requirement to have an impact on the outcome of the election at ward level.
The Bromley voter ID pilots allowed for either one form of photographic ID to be presented e.g. passport or driving license, or two forms of non-photographic ID, e.g. bank card or poll card. The pilot also allowed for the use of a Returning Officer issued certificate of identity, similar to the Voter Authority Certificate now used. Only one person produced a certificate of identity in Bromley. The most frequent form of ID shown was a driving licence (54%), a passport (24%) and a freedom pass (15%). Of the non-photo ID, the most used was a poll card with 3% of people presenting this.
Either scrap, or massively expand the list of acceptable ID
The Bromley pilots had a range of options for ID aimed at ensuring that as many people as possible were not turned away due to lack of ID, yet the estimated effect on turnout is still staggering. In order to not undermine the accessibility of our elections and eliminate this hidden effect on turnout which Barton has brought to light, the requirement for Voter ID must be scrapped.
However, as signalled by Democracy Minister, Rushanara Ali MP, getting rid of voter ID is not “on the table”. At the very least there must be big changes to the voter ID requirement, to include vouching, attestation, widely expanding the list of accepted IDs and including non-photographic IDs such as poll cards and bank cards to help minimise the impact of voter ID on turnout.
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