In a year’s time, voters across Wales will head to the polls to elect a new Senedd for the seventh time since devolution was first established over 25 years ago. However, this election promises to be unlike any other before it. Recent polling has showed that Welsh Labour’s political dominance could be ending abruptly as both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have polled above the party.
However, the story of this election goes far beyond a close race to form the next government, as the Senedd will undergo a fundamental change to the way its structured and elected. But what are these changes and what does it mean for voters and the future of Welsh democracy?
A larger Senedd for a Growing Role
The most significant change is the increase in the number of Members of the Senedd (MSs), rising from 60 to 96. Since the start of devolution, the Senedd has gained far more responsibilities, as Westminster has devolved greater control over areas like tax raising powers, elections, and transport.
Despite this expansion of powers, the Senedd itself has until now remained the same size. As a result, MSs have been forced to cover an increasingly wide range of policy areas, stretching them thin and reducing their ability to scrutinise the government effectively. Numerous expert panels and commissions have called for more MSs to strengthen accountability, improve law-making, and – ironically – save taxpayers money by reducing policy mistakes and legislative backlogs.
A system that emphasises party control over democratic accountability
To facilitate this expansion, the electoral map is being redrawn. Wales will be divided into 16 new constituencies, each electing six MSs. These larger constituencies are based on pairs of Westminster seats and were decided by the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru.
The way people vote is changing too. Voters will no longer cast two votes as they did under the mixed-member system. Instead, each person will have a single vote, which they can use to support either a political party or an independent candidate.
Each party will submit a ranked list of candidates for each constituency. Seats will then be distributed based on the number of votes each party receives, using a proportional method known as the D’Hondt formula. This means that voters will not be choosing individual candidates – instead, they’ll be voting for a party, which has pre-determined which of its candidates takes the seats it wins.
We’re already seeing fierce internal contests within parties as candidates battle for the top spots on these lists. Incumbent MSs are going head-to-head with colleagues in private selection events and hustings.
This highlights the significant concentration of power within parties rather than at the ballot box. It’s party officials – not the public – who decide which candidates are most likely to be elected and the lack of transparency into these internal processes merely adds to the sense that voters are being frozen out of a key part of the democratic process.
Instead of spending their time engaging with the electorate, candidates are now incentivised to focus on internal party politics. Surely, democracy is about being held accountable by voters, not climbing the ranks of party machinery.
Lost Opportunity for Gender Equality
One of the key justifications for adopting this new voting system was the inclusion of gender quotas. Under the original proposals, 50% of candidates on each party list would be women – an ambitious but achievable goal aimed at restoring gender balance in the Senedd.
Wales once led the world in this area, becoming the first legislature to achieve gender parity in 2003. But that ambition has since been watered down. In September last year, the Welsh Government dropped the gender quota bill and replaced it with guidance, risking a return to male-dominated politics and squandering a chance to rebuild Wales’s global reputation for equality.
A Defining Moment for Welsh Democracy
This election marks a turning point – not just in who governs Wales, but in how that governance works. The reforms offer an opportunity to create a more robust and effective Senedd. However, they also create issues around transparency and accountability and stop far short on measures to improve diversity.
Electoral reform is always an ongoing process and following the election, whoever is in government, must review the election and whether the system properly works for the people it serves – not just parties.