Since the votes cast in the local elections were counted on Friday there has been extensive debate among experts and in the media about whether we are seeing the end of the two-party system. This has been prompted largely by Reform’s surging performance, with the party winning the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, two mayoralties and over 670 councillors, meaning they could take control of as many as 10 of the 23 councils that were up for election.
Professor John Curtice pointed out the unprecedented nature of these results when he released the Projected National Vote Share score, which estimates what parties’ overall vote shares would look like if the whole country had been voting. This placed Reform on 30% of the vote, Labour on 20%, the Lib Dems on 17%, the Conservatives on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The elections guru explained that these results equalled Labour’s worst ever performance in 2009 and were the lowest estimate ever recorded for the Conservatives. This was also the first time that the combined Labour and Conservative vote share had slumped below 50%, which Prof. Sir John argued highlights the increasing fragmentation of British electoral politics.
In a piece in the Times, Prof. Sir John expanded on how the results showed that Reform was now benefiting from the distortions of the First Past the Post (FPTP) system, which has traditionally favoured the big two parties.
‘Cannot presume FPTP will ensure dominance of the two many parties in the Commons’
He said: “It [Reform] won 40 per cent of the 1,641 seats being contested, well above its share of the vote. Being ahead in votes rather than third enabled the party to breach the barrier hitherto presented by first-past-the-post. It was even able to win overall control of more than half a dozen councils, including, most remarkably, the former Labour fiefdom of Durham.
“Conservative and Labour MPs can no longer presume that Britain’s electoral system will ensure their continued dominance of the Commons.”
Robert Ford, a professor of political science at Manchester University, drew a similar conclusion in his piece in the Observer newspaper, saying “no third party has ever been so dominant in local elections”.
‘First Past the Post helps incumbents and hurts insurgents – until it doesn’t’
Prof Ford added: “Reform’s rise was amplified by the electoral system. First Past the Post helps incumbents and hurts insurgents – until it doesn’t.
“By forming the biggest party in a fragmented field, Farage was able to turn the tables, reaping the rewards of a system which hands a massive bonus to any party big and broad enough to win across the map.
“Efficient voting delivered a landside for Labour on a third of the vote last July, and a similar share helped Reform sweep to power in England’s shires.”
The polling firm More in Common’s analysis of the local election results also focused on the how Britain is moving towards multi-party voting. In a report, Luke Tryl, the company’s UK Executive Director, noted: “Further fragmentation means that the era of multi-party politics has well and truly arrived – but with a clear winner of that era this week in Reform UK – capitalising on both disillusionment and frustrations on cost of living and immigration.”
These local elections have been a continuation of theme we saw at last year’s general election: that of the public voting in an increasingly multiparty fashion and our two-party electoral system failing to cope. Last year we saw Labour win a landslide 63% of the seats in Parliament on just 34% of the vote, in what was the most disproportional election result in UK history. The general election was the first in British history where four parties won over 10% of the vote, and five parties won over 5%.
We need to move to a fairer proportional system
At the locals we saw FPTP handing powerful combined authority mayoralties to candidates on less than a quarter of the vote, such as in the West of England where Labour won on just 24.97%. We also saw it delivering distorted results in town halls across the country, such as in Staffordshire where Reform won 79% of the seats on just 41% of the vote, and Shropshire where the Lib Dems picked up 57% of the seats on 34% of the votes.
The consensus from the experts following this election is that the two-party system is coming under pressure in a way not seen for a generation. What is also clear is that our two-party voting system is failing to cope with the shift to multiparty politics and throwing up disproportional and distorted results at all levels of our democracy.
In effect, people are already voting as if we have a multi-party voting system, which is another reason why we need to move to a fairer proportional system that accurately reflects how they’ve voted, whether at Westminster or at town halls.
It’s to scrap first past the post and finally fairly represent us all in local government.
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