A high-stakes fight is underway in the United States over redrawing the constituencies for the House of Representatives in Washington, DC. One flashpoint is California’s Proposition 50, a ballot measure that passed today. Voters have decided to replace the state’s independent redistricting commission with maps drawn by the legislature, which are intentionally designed to favour the Democratic Party.
What is Proposition 50 and why it matters
Each state in the USA has the power to draw the boundaries for both their internal state elections and federal elections to the House of Representatives. While some states have given this power to an independent body, much like the UK’s independent boundary commissions, in others the work is done by the politicians themselves.
This means state level politicians have the power to change the make-up of the federal House of Representatives – which in turn makes life easier or harder for the President.
Under the current system, California uses a Citizens Redistricting Commission to draw constituencies for the House of Representatives, with rules meant to limit partisan bias. Proposition 50 would suspend that method temporarily. Starting in 2026, new maps drawn by the state legislature would take effect that are designed to get more Democrats elected. The Commission would resume its role only after the 2030 census.
Why would Californians choose to rig their own elections? Advocates argue it’s an emergency measure in response to what they call a power grab by Republicans in Texas, who recently redrew their maps in order to get more Republicans elected.
Analysts expect the new Californian maps could flip up to five seats to the Democrats in forthcoming House of Representatives election, offsetting some effects of the Texas gerrymander.
Gerrymandering is a fancy word for election rigging
Gerrymandering is the deliberate engineering of political advantage. Politicians choose their voters so they can decide the outcome of elections before a vote has been cast, turning the way elections are supposed to work upside down.
This can be done as so many voters in First Past the Post make no difference to the result. In every constituency, the votes that go to the candidates who aren’t elected go nowhere. But not every vote for the person elected makes a difference, either. They only needed one more vote than the second-place candidate to win the seat, so every vote they win beyond this level is surplus to requirements.
Politicians use these two issues to design their rigged maps. Voters for opposing parties are either packed into a few incredibly safe seats, so their votes are wasted as ‘surplus’, or they are spread out thinly into seats designed to ensure they come second everywhere. This is called ‘packing’ for the former and ‘cracking’ for the latter.
What does this mean for the UK?
The key difference in the UK is that constituencies are not designed by politicians themselves. The Boundary Commissions run an open process, with public feedback at each stage.
But in theory, hundreds of different constituency maps could be drawn, each resulting in a different parliamentary makeup. Where the lines go can directly affect who represents you and how many MPs each party has.
As the borders rotate round, the MPs elected by our fictional town change, even though no voters change their minds.The Boundary Commissions do not intentionally pack and crack voters, instead drawing boundaries based on a set list of criteria, such as geographic features, local government boundaries and local ties. But these criteria still unintentionally pack some voters and crack others. The result is less extreme, but lines on the map are still deciding if you get an MP you voted for.
If we want what you think, to be more important than where you live, we need to solve the problem of so many votes having no impact on the result.
The answer to this is proportional representation. Proportional electoral systems, like the Single Transferable Vote, elect multiple MPs from larger constituencies. This ensures groups of MPs reflect the range of political opinion in the area. Rather than going to waste, votes go to get people elected.
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